Global Actions and Pledges Not Enough
The Art
GLOBAL ACTIONS AND PLEDGES NOT ENOUGH TO AVOID CATASTROPHIC IMPACTS
The Science
What’s Alarming
“…Today, thanks to rapid growth in clean energy, humanity has started to bend the emissions curve. Current policies put us on pace for roughly 3 degrees Celsius of warming by 2100 — a better result, but still devastating…. Many countries have vowed to slash emissions even faster. So far those promises exist mostly on paper, but if nations follow through, the world could potentially limit total warming to around 2 to 2.4 degrees Celsius by 2100…. Yet scientists and world leaders increasingly say even that much warming is too risky. To hold global temperature rise to a safer limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius, far more drastic action is needed…”*
“The 2020/2021 round of NDC updates has only reduced the emissions gap in 2030 by 15-17%. Even after the new update round, global emissions in 2030 resulting from implementation of NDCs will still be twice as high as what’s needed for a 1.5°C consistent pathway. … This credibility gap grows larger when we turn our attention to policy implementation. Under current policies, end-of-century warming will be 2.7°C.4 While this temperature estimate has fallen since our last assessment, major new policy developments are not the driving factor. It is also still well above our “2030 targets only” temperature estimate, indicating that, collectively, countries are not on track to achieve the targets they have put forward.”**
“Key finding 4: global emissions are not in line with modelled global mitigation pathways consistent with the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement, and there is a rapidly narrowing window to raise ambition and implement existing commitments in order to limit warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. ..”***
*“Yes, There Has Been Progress on Climate. No, It’s Not Nearly Enough. The New York Times, Dec 8, 2021
**Climate Action Tracker/ Warming Projections Global Update – November 2021
***United Nations Climate Change – Technical dialogue of the first global stocktake. Synthesis report by the co-facilitators on the technical dialogue, Sept 8, 2023
