Managing Rising Aridity
The Art
The Science
“MOST OF THE WORLD’S LAND IS DRYING
Rising aridity—the growing, long-term loss of available, life-sustaining moisture by terrestrial climates— is threatening people and environments in almost every global region. Increasingly, aridity-related land degradation and water scarcity are contributing to food and water insecurity, poor soil fertility, losses in crop and plant productivity, biodiversity declines, ecosystem degradation, intense sand and dust storms, wildfires, poor health and large-scale human migration.
More than three-quarters of all land on Earth experienced a drier climate during the three decades leading up to 2020, compared to the previous 30-year period, and global drylands expanded by about 4.3 million km2—an area equal to half the size of the continent of Australia/Oceania—to cover 40.6 per cent of global lands (excluding Antarctica).
Much of aridity’s recent rise can be attributed to human-caused climate change. If the world fails in efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions into the future, another 3 per cent of the world’s humid areas are projected to transform into drylands by the end of this century.
Meanwhile, people living in drylands have doubled in number—to 2.3 billion, more than a quarter of the global population—over the past three decades, and models suggest as many as 5 billion could inhabit drylands by 2100 in a worst-case climate change scenario.
Assessing and understanding aridity trends and future projections is critical to developing resilient adaptation and mitigation strategies. This brief and the accompanying report address the challenges in assessing aridity, aridity’s current and future trends and the multifaceted impacts resulting from aridity, aiming to catalyse global, regional and local efforts towards sustainable adaptation measures…
WHAT POLICYMAKERS CAN DO
The expansion of global drylands and the inadequacy of current policies related to water require new integrated, collaborative and adaptive approaches to address the complex challenges posed by aridity. Building on standardized assessments, inclusive governance and innovative solutions…”
The recommendations reflected in the above figure … ‘should enhance resilience and sustainable practices in vulnerable regions and align with broader environmental and climate goals’.”
“The Global Threat of Drying Lands: Regional and global aridity trends and future projections, United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification, Science Policy Brief
Chapter 5 figure 18
